WIND POWERED PUMPED STORAGE FOR AFRICA

Copyright © 2023 Philip C. Cruver

The Sahel region of Africa spans these eleven countries in the Sahara desert: Chad, Niger, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Djibouti, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan. As of 2021, the estimated population of these countries was around 482 million and the United Nations expects the population to reach 898 million by 2050. This enormous population growth poses challenges for the region, including increased pressure on limited natural resources, such as water and arable land.

Fortunately, the region also possesses some of the world's largest aquifers that could provide a solution for the challenges and ample opportunities supporting economic growth. The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System is one of the largest aquifers in the world spanning across Chad, Egypt, Libya, and Sudan. A recent groundbreaking (pun unintended) discovery of the aquifer beneath Niger identified approximately 50 billion cubic meters of available groundwater with an estimated annual recharge of 2 billion cubic meters. This qualifies Niger as the most groundwater rich country in the Sahel region which is ironic because it is also one of the most impoverished nations on the planet.

Like the rest of Africa, where one-half of the continent’s 1.2 billion population are deprived of electricity, Sahel countries also lack access to electricity.  As of 2021, the total installed electricity capacity in the 11 Sahel countries was a mere 23 gigawatts (GW) depriving 52.4% of the population from prosperity.  However, if the abundant intermittent renewable energy resources could be harnessed, and the region’s massive underground aquifers could be tapped into for storage, it would be possible to provide clean, reliable, and consistent electricity with the bonus of irrigation water for agriculture.

Solar and wind energy have become less expensive than coal and gas, but add the cost of storage, and intermittent renewables lose to fossil fuels. Consider that more than 90% of the world's energy-storage reside in reservoirs, as part of a remarkable but unsung technology called pumped-storage hydropower. With this concept, motors pump water uphill from a lower reservoir to a higher reservoir and when the water is released downwards via gravity it spins a turbine generating power again. A pumped-hydro installation is like a permanent battery, charged when water is pumped uphill and depleted as it flows downward.

Aquifer Pumped Hydroelectric Energy Storage (APHES) is a novel concept for storing large amounts of energy for the generation of electricity that requires an underground aquifer, a surface reservoir, and a wind turbine power plant. When the wind blows, water is pumped from the aquifer to the surface reservoir where the energy is stored in the form of gravitation potential energy. When the wind does not blow, the water is released from the surface reservoir that turns a turbine located in the underground aquifer to generate electricity. Simply put, after water has been pumped out of the aquifer into the surface reservoir, some of the water can then be released from the reservoir back into the aquifer, reversing the operation of the motor pump to produce electricity as a turbine generator and remaining water can be used for agriculture irrigation.

APHES, utilizing aquifers and a renewable energy source as the power plant, can provide clean and affordable energy for mini-grids and agriculture irrigation in rural and desert regions. This modular and scalable concept, coupled with low-maintenance, make it an ideal solution for clean and reliable electricity and agriculture irrigation water. APFES has the potential to create economic opportunities and improve living standards across the planet contributing to sustainable development and decarbonization.

Driving innovation for developing APHES is the $369 billion Inflation Reduction Act with Federal largesse incentives for deploying energy storage projects in the United States. On January 2023, an investment tax credit (ITC) of 30% for stand-alone energy storage facilities became effective and an additional 20% ITC is eligible if deployed in low-income underserved areas. A whopping 50% ITC will incentivize investment for APHES innovations in America for transferring to Africa.

SEAPLANT & SHELLFISH OFFSHORE MARICULTURE FOR FOOD SECURITY

Copyright © 2022 Philip C. Cruver

“Aquaculture, not the Internet, represents the most promising investment opportunity of the 21st Century” This statement was made by Peter Drucker, the management expert, economist, and Nobel Laureate: "It's going to be fish farming," he said, because on the oceans "we are still hunters and gatherers." Expanding on this opinion, Drucker said that “20 years ago all salmon and shrimp consumed was wild; today 60 percent of each is farmed, and 25 years – requires a very substantial expansion of protein supply, and expansion of terrestrial domesticated animals is becoming increasing expensive and, above all, increasingly detrimental to the environment."

Jacques Cousteau's presciently stated in 1973: "We need to farm the ocean as we farm the land". Viewing his stalled vision forty years later, perhaps Cousteau should have preceded sustainably as an adverb before farm with the conjunction that regulations must be subordinated to science-based solutions. Let’s look at the facts: since the 1970’s agriculture has been crawling at a mere 2-3% per year, while ascending aquaculture has been expanding at an average of 8% per year. The contribution of aquaculture to world fish production has grown from 3.9% in 1970 to about 35% and this growth continues, while the wild ocean fish harvest has not increased since 1990. Most of the planet’s valuable fish stocks are either fully, or over exploited, and threatened by climate and related environmental changes.

Aquaculture is the fastest growing segment of the global food sector. This shift from hunting and gathering to farming the seas promises to attract attention as controversial new paradigms emerge for the introduction of exotic species, selective breeding, and genetic engineering for feeding a future population of 9 billion. An estimated one billion of the global population today are malnourished and hungry. A revolution for producing life-sustaining protein will be critical for preventing mass genocide of the next two billion who will mostly be born in developing countries.

Planet Earth does not have the carrying capacity to feed the projected future population; however, Planet Ocean could with 70 percent more space from the sea. About 70,000 square kilometers of agricultural land are lost annually to growth of cities and other non-agricultural uses; and consumer diets in developing countries are increasingly changing from plant-based proteins to animal protein, a trend that requires a greater amount of crop-based feeds.

On Planet Earth, 18% of the land mass is used for agricultural production and ten crops account for 70-80% of all calories consumed. Agricultural land cannot be increased substantially, and all ten crops must double to meet demand. Therefore, it is only possible that the yield per unit of land be increased beyond current levels with new sustainable paradigms. The oceans are over-fished and can only yield steadily decreasing returns.

Aquaculture may be the only solution towards meeting the widening gap in demand and decreasing supply for seafood. Asia, the epicenter of the aquaculture industry, accounts for over 90% of global aquaculture production and about 80% of the value. Although China produces about two-thirds of the world’s seafood, it is projected to soon shift from a net seafood exporter to a net seafood importer. Since imports constitute about 85% of the seafood consumed in the United States, this shift in China threatens a significant supply and pricing eruption.

As the global demand doubles for food over the next 40 years, under present production technologies, achieving global food security will require a doubling of water consumption levels.  Meanwhile, the chemically fueled “Green Revolution” has run its course, leaving soil moistures depleted, and unclear climate change patterns threaten a looming agricultural water crisis. According to a study by McKinsey, a third of the world’s population lives in regions facing water shortages; by 2030 global water requirements could be as much as 40 percent higher than the currently accessible supply.

Ironically, as stated previously, 70% of our planet is covered with seas offering more economical protein production not depleting scarce water resources.  Also previously stated, global wild fisheries have reached or exceeded their maximum sustainable harvest. The United Nations is projecting a 40 million ton seafood shortage by 2030. Therefore, the $50 billion worldwide marine aquaculture will continue to be the fastest growing form of food production in the world.

Marine species feeding low in the food chain efficiently utilize natural resources.  Each level up the trophic food chain inflates costs related to the use of such resources affecting the production of waste and the maintenance of water quality. For developing nations, low-trophic shellfish mariculture has the potential to become the next agriculture, particularly for regions confronted with water shortages and possessing ideal coastal conditions.

Shellfish as a seafood represents 27 percent of global aquaculture production.  Fast growing shellfish crops require little attention as they feed on drifting plankton and are easily harvested and processed with a long shelf life for extended distribution. In contrast to traditional shellfish farming that takes place in congested and increasingly polluted bays and estuaries, the new paradigm of open ocean farming cultivates shellfish in pristine offshore waters. The abundance of plankton from the phenomenon of upwelling provides the food for rapid shellfish growth and the cool water currents deter disease.

The development of global shellfish aquaculture would increase food security by mitigating malnutrition with healthy seafood protein while also reducing the depletion of sparse water resources used for traditional agriculture. Such a sustainable new industry would create jobs, income generation, and exports for increased foreign exchange. It would also relieve pressure on wild fish stocks to revive the livelihoods of fisher folks in coastal communities

Unlike all other forms of marine aquaculture, commercially grown shellfish have been identified as the only sustainable form of aquaculture with no negative impact on the environment. Shellfish aquaculture operations improve water quality by filtering out pollutants, sediments, and plankton from the water column. Furthermore, bivalve shellfish remove nitrogen from the water to help control and prevent harmful algal blooms that are increasingly threatening coastal waters.

Bivalve shellfish and macroalgae (seaplants) are documented to synergistically improve water quality and reduce Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) caused by nutrient overloading. Shellfish function to reduce nutrients and abate hypoxia in two ways. First, shellfish assimilate a large percentage of what they consume. Thus, shellfish cultivated and then removed for consumption would serve the purpose of extracting organic particle bound nutrients based on what they assimilate. Second, because shellfish filter-feed from the water column, they play a role in focusing where and when organic particle bound nutrients from the water column not assimilated reach the sediment bed.

Seaplants, on the other hand, uptake and assimilate dissolved inorganic nutrients making them unavailable for phytoplankton growth. The uptake of inorganic nutrients by seaplants rather than phytoplankton has the potential to abate hypoxia if the seaplant and the incorporated nutrients are removed prior to senescence and die-off. The functioning of shellfish and seaplants are complementary rather than competitive since each uptake different nutrient phases, particulate organic and dissolved inorganic.

In contrast to shellfish conventionally harvested from the bottoms of intertidal bays and estuaries that are increasingly polluted, “open ocean” is an emerging concept for cultivating shellfish in pristine offshore waters that feed 24/7. The abundance of plankton and algae from upwelling seas provide abundant shellfish food for rapid growth and the cool water currents deter disease. Because they require no fresh water, no deforestation, and no fertilizer -- all significant downsides to land-based farming -- these ocean farms promise to be more sustainable than even the most environmentally sensitive traditional farms

Seaplants are one of the fastest growing organisms in the world with turbo-charged growth cycles enabling rapid scale-up of their carbon sinks. Seaplants grown to offset emissions must be harvested and permanently consumed for certification as carbon-neutral ensuring that the carbon is not simply recycled back into the air. Seaplants employ photosynthesis to suck massive amounts of carbon deposited from the atmosphere into coastal ecosystems and amazingly can absorb five times more carbon than land-based plants. While most of the attention to carbon sinks has been on terrestrial forests, researchers are increasingly investigating the oceans where about 8 million tons of seaweed are annually harvested from wild or cultivated sources.  Some scientists say seaplants could also be a potent weapon against climate change by sucking damaging carbon dioxide from the atmosphere at rates comparable to the mightiest rain forests.

Integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA), or polyculture, is a concept that encourages greater environmental stewardship for increasing the economic and environmental benefits provided by sustainable marine crops. It is based on the concept of recycling nutrients and efficient nutrient utilization. Instead of growing only one species (monoculture) and focusing primarily on the needs of that species, it mimics a natural ecosystem by combining the farming of multiple, complementary species from different levels of the food chain.

With IMTA, growing sustainable species close together benefits both the crops and the environment. The integrating of fed aquaculture with inorganic and organic extractive aquaculture (seaweed and bivalve shellfish) the wastes of one resource becomes a resource (fertilizer or food) for the other. The IMTA concept provides nutrient bioremediation capability, mutual benefits to the co cultured organisms, economic diversification, increased profitability, significant ecosystem services and increased societal acceptability. It could also play a significant role in reducing ocean acidification at coastal levels. The IMTA system is driven only by sunlight, natural inorganic nutrients, as well as carbon dioxide and provides efficient food provisions, nutrient extraction, and climate regulating services to the marine ecosystem.

According to the United Nations, the number of people affected by hunger has more than doubled in the past three years and almost a million people are living in famine conditions, with starvation and death a daily reality. A staggering three billion people cannot afford a healthy diet; the war in Ukraine has triggered surging food, fertilizer, and energy prices; and the most vulnerable are being battered by the pandemic, climate crisis, environmental degradation, conflict, and deepening inequalities. Sustainable and nutritious seaplant and shellfish farmed offshore could improve food security and vindicate Cousteau and Drucker’s admonitions.

BIVALVE BREEDING

Copyright © 2022 Philip C. Cruver

For as long as plants and animals have been domesticated the tendency has been to select species for improvement like better growth, disease resistance, or any character allowing a better yield. Globally, one third of pigs, half of eggs, two thirds of milk and three quarters of broilers are produced with industrial breeding lines. Mariculture genetics is sure to follow, and the trajectory will be steeper with the recent advances in biotechnology and the sequencing of the genome.

The mariculture industry has been slow to adopt quantitative genetics and selective breeding as compared with the plant and farm animal industries. A breeding program for bivalve shellfish would be particularly promising for genetic gains based upon their relatively high fecundity (prolific spawning) and heritability (ability to pass on economically important traits). These factors combined with short generation intervals and recent advances in bivalve shellfish genome sequencing could revolutionize a sustainable and nutritious food source for feeding the future.

Polyploidy is based on changing the number of chromosomes in bivalve shellfish. These polyploids contain the same chromosomes that were present in the eggs. No foreign genes from other species are introduced in this process. This approach has been widely used in the agriculture industry since for example, bananas are triploids, wheat is hexaploidy, blueberries are naturally tetraploid and sugar beets are triploid.

Polyploidy allows the bivalve shellfish industry to produce animals that are sterile. To give birth to the triploid shellfish, no chemicals or genetic engineering are used, rather a tetraploid shellfish, which is bred with four chromosomes and a normal diploid with two chromosomes are then bred to produce a triploid shellfish.

This has many advantages in the culture of bivalve shellfish. Commercially cultivated species expend considerable energy spawning. In a sterile animal this energy is partially redirected to growth. Oysters typically become "soft" or spawny in the summer months making them less desirable for the raw bar trade. Sterile oysters stay firm and full of glycogen year-round. In many growing areas oysters will spawn releasing up to 50% of their body mass and dramatically reduce crop yield for extended periods of time. This problem is averted with a sterile crop. Furthermore, because of their rapid growth, triploids are ready for market before the onset of major mortalities attributed to disease.

Polyploidy refers to a genetic state that can be produced artificially in fish and bivalve shellfish through manipulation of embryos. Polyploidy is highly regarded in China and has been studied in close to 30 shellfish species, including Pacific oysters, scallops, and abalone. Thanks to extensive research efforts in the field of polyploidy, triploid oyster breeding has developed into an industry in coastal China, with triploid oysters exhibiting increased flesh quality and growth compared to diploids: triploid Pacific oysters are 17% larger than diploids prior to spawning and more than 30% larger after spawning.

Besides advantages such as increased growth rates, use of sterile triploids in mariculture can help protect the genetic diversity of native populations and prevent establishment of populations of escaped organisms. Tetraploids are induced in a similar way as triploids, but during a more advanced stage of embryonic development. A tetraploid/diploid cross would be expected to produce all-triploid progeny that might be more viable than mechanically induced triploids, as triploid embryos would not have to undergo the same stress and damage that occurs during mechanical induction.

Molecular biologists bring laboratory-based approaches about the workings of genes, proteins, chromosomes and cells. Computational biologists focus on the design and development of algorithms that analyze DNA, protein sequences and other biological data. The science is based on principles that have been developed over thousands of years with plants and farmed animals and now accelerated by digital technologies. There is no genetic engineering; only the adaption of recent scientific short cuts for eliminating undesired genetic characteristics rather than breeding for desired traits.

Advanced molecular and computational technologies take a unique approach for reducing the lengthy and tedious selective breeding process. For example, with traditional selective breeding programs, the largest and fastest growing bivalve shellfish families are bred with other families to influence the basic genetics revealing specific DNA sequences in the majority of that population.  With this data, scientists evaluate generic bivalve shellfish DNA to better understand specific sequence changes for elucidation with genetic sweeps by powerful computers. By understanding the variations in DNA that cause good traits scientists skip, or reduce, the expensive and time-consuming trial and error of traditional breeding for producing a product that has all or most of the desired traits.

Here’s how it works: DNA gets coded into RNA, which is made into proteins for producing an organism. RNAi interferes (hence the 'i') with any unwanted RNA sequence by silencing implicated genes. By removing a piece of RNA that is essential for life, the organism dies resulting in dead shellfish larvae. Reagent companies sell “virtual kits” consisting of complex, proprietary algorithms to predict sophisticated sequences. By targeting variations in RNA not wanted in each organism and adding programmed RNAi chemical reagents into a tank containing millions of larvae those that are unwanted become mortalities. The surviving larvae would have the exact type of RNA with the prescribed suite of traits. Using this technique eliminates the requirement of sequencing each generation. It's basically a scientific short-cut for a genetic filtering process using the same principle that natural selection has employed over eons.

This technique provides an exciting opportunity for the advancement of science and global food security and a novel way to quickly produce a bivalve shellfish species with selected features of economic interest by mimicking natural selection. Because RNAi is not heritable, subsequent bumper crops can be harvested without the GMO stigma. This expertise is transferrable to the selective breeding of other broadcast-spawning bivalves for delivering gains by shortening growth cycles, improving yields, and increasing uniformity. There is also the potential for breeding for specific, high-value markets requiring consistency in size, shape, coloration, and greater Omega-3 content. Cutting-edge molecular and computational technologies promise an economic breakthrough for the global sustainable bivalve shellfish industry.

ALIEN SPECIES IN A GLOBALIZED OCEAN

Copyright © 2022 Philip C. Cruver

Global agriculture, as with aquaculture, is dependent to a significant extent on alien species, as is the case for all major food crops and husbanded terrestrial animals. However, voluntary and or accidental introduction of alien species is thought to negatively impact local biodiversity.

Approximately 17% of the world's finfish production is based on species alien to their environment. Tilapia, native to Egypt’s Nile River, easily adapted across the globe and is now farmed in over 85 countries doubling during the past decade to about 3.7 million tons with Asia representing about three quarters of world tilapia production.

Farmed salmon represented less than 10% of the global supply 20 years ago; it now accounts for over 60% of the salmon market. Between 1990 and 2000, the Chilean salmon farming industry grew 10 times while overall world production doubled. This performance is remarkable considering that commercial salmon farming in Chile started only a little more than 20 years ago.  Unlike many other exporting countries – Norway, Canada, the UK and USA – salmon is not a species native to Chile, which currently ranks as the second largest exporter trailing only Norway.

The Pacific oyster was introduced to Northwest America from Japan in the 1920s and has grown into a $72 million industry. The Pacific oyster was then introduced to France in the 1970s with 562 tons of adult oysters from Canada and 5 billion spat brought in from Japan. By 2000 this alien shellfish represented 95% the country’s harvest amounting to 180,000 tons per annum. France in now the top producer and consumer of oysters in Europe and 130,000 tons are the Pacific oyster compared to only 1,500 tons of the native oyster. Moreover, the Pacific oyster is cultivated all along the French coast and 80% of the crops is produced from "alien" now naturalized spat.

The above remarkable stories validate immigration, adaptation, and proliferation of a foreign species for benefiting the economy of many nations. After decades of debates ecologists are increasingly classifying alien species as “naturalized or endemic”.

Invasion of Alien Species

Species invasions have occurred for as long as life populated the seas and there are now about 2.2 million species in the ocean. Invading species are particularly successful in disturbed habitats, especially those altered by human activities and climate change.  Thus, these invaders have colonized human-altered environments having unprecedented and complex ecological tolerances that they have adapted to and which the native species could not.

Traditional ecologists and environmentalists are instigating a jihad against introduced species fearing "invasive species" as aggressive outsiders causing a holocaust among natives.  In reality, the diversity and spontaneity of new “immigrant” biological communities mirror a modern transformative society.  Indeed, the same processes that have galvanized globalization of the world economy – unfettered trade and travel among nations - have also caused the globalization of the environment.

In the progressive camp, Dr. Mark Davis a renowned biologist at Macalester College opines: “There is no evidence that even a single long term resident species has been driven to extinction, or even extirpated within a single U.S. state, because of competition from an introduced plant species”. Yet the spurious threat of extinction persists as one of the chief reasons given for trying to prevent the introduction of alien species.

Also in the progressive camp, Dr. Tomás Carlo, an assistant professor of biology at Penn State University whose research is published in the journal of “Diversity and Distributions”, logically articulates this viewpoint: "The fundamental goal is to return a natural area to its original, pristine state, with the native species occupying the dominant position in the community. But the problem is that humans already have changed most native communities beyond recognition, and many native species are now rare. Invasive species could fill niches in degraded ecosystems and help restore native biodiversity in an inexpensive and self-organized way that requires little or no human intervention. Nature is in a constant state of flux, always shifting and readjusting as new relationships form between species, and not all of these relationships are bad just because they are novel or created by humans. We need to be more careful about shooting first and asking questions later -- assuming that introduced species are inherently harmful. We should be asking: are we responding to real threats to nature or to our cultural perception and scientific bias?"

Exotic species receive unwarranted attention and create unnecessary worry. However, Dr. Dov Sax, an ecologist at Brown University and Dr. Steven Gaines, a marine biologist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and several other researchers argue that attitudes about exotic species are too simplistic. While some invasions are indeed devastating, they often do not set off extinctions. They can even spur the evolution of new diversity. “I hate the ‘exotics are evil’ bit, because it’s so unscientific,” Dr. Sax said.

Dr. Sax and Dr. Gaines have analyzed the rise of exotic species on island chains and found that invasive plants have become naturalized at a steady pace over the last two centuries, with no sign of slowing down. In fact, the total diversity of these islands has doubled. For example, there are more naturalized invasive plant species in New Zealand than native species and they claim that the New Zealand invasion has not led to a mass extinction of native plants. The number of documented extinctions of native New Zealand plant species is a grand total of three.

Dr. James Brown a researcher at the University of New Mexico concurs with this theory. Whenever he visits a river where exotic fish have been introduced, “I ask, ‘Have you seen any extinctions of the natives?’ The first response you get is, ‘Not yet,’ as if the extinction of the natives is an inevitable consequence. There’s this article of faith that the net effect is negative.” Dr. Brown does not think that faith is warranted. In Hawaii, for example, 40 new species of freshwater fish have become established, and the 5 native species are still present. Dr. Brown and his colleagues acknowledge that invasive species can push native species out of much of their original habitat. But they argue that native species are not becoming extinct, because they compete better than the invasive species in certain refuges.

Could it be that whether the impacts of introduced species are positive or negative? Good or bad is a subjective value judgment rather than an objective scientific finding. “It’s not that this is all good or all bad, and I’m not sure science should be the arbiter,” Dr. Brown said. “Placing values on these things is the job of society as a whole.”

Aquatic Homogenization

Biological homogenization is the dominant process shaping the future global biosphere. As global transportation becomes faster and more frequent, it is inevitable that biotic intermixing will increase. Unique local biotas will become extinct only to be replaced by already widespread biotas that can tolerate human activities and climate change. This process is affecting all aspects of our world: language, economies, and ecosystems alike.

Emerging evidence shows that most species are declining because of human activities and climate change “losers” are being replaced by a much smaller number of expanding species that thrive in human-altered environments, the “winners”. The ultimate outcome is the loss of uniqueness and the growth of uniformity. The oceans are witnessing a broad and complete reorganization of species distributions and marine communities are becoming increasingly homogenized as a result.

There are few if any marine, coastal, or inland water systems that have not been impacted by aquatic aliens. At least 70 alien species have been found in every estuary that has been surveyed in the continental United States. San Francisco Bay is one of the most invaded bodies of water and one of the best studied.  A new aquatic species becomes established every 14 days and there are now over 230 foreign species in the bay. They are introduced through ballast water, hitchhiking on ship fouling, and intentional transplants.

The construction of canals can remove dispersal barriers allowing species to cross between water systems that may have been isolated for millions of years. The opening of the Suez Canal introduced 250 new fish species into the Mediterranean Sea from the Red Sea. Consider: only a single extinction resulted.

The existential exigencies of climate change, deglobalization, changing demographics, and inevitable wars causing famine and malnutrition require a rethinking of this maligned topic. Consider that the number of people globally affected by hunger rose to as many as 828 million in 2021 - 46 million people more from a year earlier, and 150 million more from 2019 according to the United Nations.

THE NEXT FOOD REVOLUTION

Copyright © 2022 Philip C. Cruver

Within the past century, there has been a series of revolutions influencing global agriculture production. One revolution arrived with the application of chemicals for crop protection and recent revolutions have centered on breeding strategies through biotechnology and genomics. With global hunger rising to as many as 828 million in 2021, according to the United Nations, another food revolution is on the horizon.

On January 3, 2013, adamant anti-genetically modified (GM) environmentalist Mark Lynas announced that he has changed his mind. At the Oxford Farming Conference, he delivered a blunt and passionate 5,000-word mea culpa to over 1,000 attendees that he got GM wrong: “I want to start with some apologies. For the record, here and upfront, I apologize for having spent several years ripping up GM crops. I am also sorry that I helped to start the anti-GM movement back in the mid 1990s, and that I thereby assisted in demonizing an important technological option which can be used to benefit the environment. As an environmentalist, and someone who believes that everyone in this world has a right to a healthy and nutritious diet of their choosing, I could not have chosen a more counter-productive path. I now regret it completely. So, I guess you’ll be wondering—what happened between 1995 and now that made me not only change my mind but come here and admit it? Well, the answer is fairly simple: I discovered science, and in the process, I hope I became a better environmentalist.”

Lynas explained his conversion in a full-Monty manner. He came to the realization that GM may be the only way to avoid mass genocide of billions born into a planet possessing limited resources but for technology. To vilify GM is to be as anti-science as climate-change deniers, he stated, and to feed a growing world population, we must take advantage of all the technology available to us, including GM. To insist on “natural” agriculture and livestock is to doom people to starvation, and there’s no logical reason to prefer the old ways, either. Moreover, the reason why big companies dominate the industry is that anti-GM activists and policymakers have made it too difficult for small startups to enter the field.

Lynas concluded his dramatic address with a plea for appeasement that those who wish to stick with organic are entitled to, but they should not stand in the way of others who would use science to find more efficient ways to feed billions. “The GM debate is over. It is finished. We no longer need to discuss whether or not it is safe. … You are more likely to get hit by an asteroid than to get hurt by GM food,” he says.

Even Bill Nye, best known as the Science Guy, has changed his views about GM. Initially, he was skeptical of GM foods and the impact they could have on the environment and human health. However, as he learned more about the science behind GM and the potential benefits they offer, he became more supportive of their use. Nye now believes that GM can play an important role in solving some of the world's biggest problems, such as feeding a growing global population and improving agriculture in developing countries. "GM foods are safe as can be. They are tested and tested," Nye said, adding that, "If you think about [it], you'll realize that farming is not really natural. If humans stop farming, the land goes back to being whatever it was before, a forest or prairie. Same is true for ocean or lake farming," he added of his newfound perspective.

Best-selling and award-winning author Charles C. Mann offers an insightful perspective about GM in his 2018 book "The Wizard and the Prophet". This thought-provoking and brilliantly written book featured Norman Borlaug, the father of the Green Revolution and Nobel Prize Laureate, as the Wizard who envisioned technological progress as the key to overcoming hunger, poverty, and environmental degradation. According to Mr. Mann: "The argument about GMOs is frequently posed in terms of health risks–are they safe to eat? In my view, the evidence to date is overwhelming that there is no particular reason to think that GMO crops pose more dangers to human health than crops developed by conventional breeding. At the same time, there are a host of reasons to think that the now-conventional industrial-style agriculture brought to us by the Green Revolution has problems: fertilizer runoff, soil depletion, the destruction of rural communities, etc. GMOs are often said by advocates of industrial ag to be the only way to keep this system going so that we can feed everyone in the world of 10 billion. If you already think that industrial ag is a big problem, then of course you would oppose a technology that is supposed to keep it going. That seems to me a better, more fruitful ground to argue.”

Thomas Kuhn theorized and prophesized in “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions” that science is not merely an accumulation of facts. It is a body of knowledge determined by history and ever-changing intellectual fashions, so that even the most widely accepted beliefs about science are subject to dramatic paradigm shifts. Thus, the mainstream science to which Mr. Lynas now professes allegiance may have the last word on hunger. Climate change and ocean acidification may convert die-hard luddites blinded by bias and impoverished by ignorance.

Scientific creations promise to amplify the invasive species and GM food controversies with a shriller debate. Traditional ecologists and environmentalists are instigating a jihad against introduced species fearing "invasive species" as aggressive outsiders causing a global holocaust among natives. Hopefully these conservatives will consider that the diversity and spontaneity of new “immigrant” biological communities mirror our modern transformative society. Furthermore, the impacts of introduced species are a subjective value judgment rather than an objective scientific finding. Perhaps biased scientists should not be the arbitrators but rather an informed society, understanding science-based solutions, should make the decisions.

Technologies for GM foods offer dramatic solutions for meeting some of the 21st Century's greatest challenges. Like all new technologies, they also pose some risks, both known and unknown:

1. We know that in 2010, 15.4 million farmers planted 1 billion hectares of genetically modified GM crops in 29 countries.

2. We know that there are currently about 1 billion hungry and malnourished denizens on Planet Earth and without GM there would be many more.

3. We know that risks must be taken for the future since the alternative is the certainty of a human holocaust from starvation far exceeding innovation based upon fear.

The invasive species and GM debates are highly polarized, pitting good against evil, with little regard to the alternative of global starvation.  Feeding the future, with the certitude of the devastating effects of climate change, will transform the economics of the agriculture and aquaculture industries to adopt competitive new technologies.  Governments should consider policies for GM and immigrant super species to mitigate global starvation.

Modifying the Genome to Compete in a Changing World

Most of the 1 billion hectares of GM crops planted in 2010 were herbicide and insect-resistant soybeans, corn, cotton, canola, and alfalfa. Other crops grown commercially or field-tested are a sweet potato resistant to a virus that could decimate most of the African harvest, rice with increased iron and vitamins that may alleviate chronic malnutrition in Asian countries, and a variety of plants able to survive weather extremes. Although growth is expected to plateau in industrialized nations, it is increasing in developing countries. The next decade may see exponential progress in GM product development as researchers gain increasing and unprecedented access to genomic resources that are applicable to organisms beyond the scope of individual projects.

On the horizon are bananas that produce human vaccines against infectious diseases such as hepatitis B; fish that mature more quickly; cows that are resistant to mad cow disease; fruit and nut trees that yield years earlier, and plants that produce new plastics with unique properties.

Technologies for GM foods offer dramatic promise for meeting some of the 21st Century's greatest challenges. Like all new technologies, they also pose some risks, both known and unknown. Controversies surrounding GM foods and crops commonly focus on human and environmental safety, labeling and consumer choice, intellectual property rights, ethics, food security, poverty reduction, and environmental conservation.

The key areas of political controversy related to GM are food safety, the effect on natural ecosystems, gene flow into non-GM crops and corporate control of the food supply. While it is not possible to make general statements on the safety of all GM foods, to date, no adverse health effects caused by products approved for sale have been documented.

Many agricultural scientists and food security specialists view GM crops as a critical element for sustainable food security and environmental management. Through selective breeding, farmers and scientists have a history of modifying animals to maximize desirable traits. In the broadest sense, genetic modification refers to changes in an organism’s genetic makeup not occurring in nature, including the production of conventional hybrids.

With the advent of modern biotechnology, it is now possible to take genes for a specific protein either from the same species or from an entirely different one and transfer it to create an organism expressing a novel trait or a trait outside the normal range of variation for the species.  This technique can add both speed and efficiency to the development of new foods and products. Genetically engineered plant varieties, such as herbicide-resistant corn and soybeans, have already been widely adopted by U.S. farmers, and genetically engineered fish or seafood are similarly being adopted by the aquaculture industry.

Scientists are seeking ways to genetically engineer fish and other seafood species to introduce or amplify economically valuable traits. Fish are of particular interest to researchers since they are fecund and therefore produce large quantities of eggs, which are external to the animal making it relatively simple to insert novel DNA. Research on GM strains is currently under development for at least 35 species of fish worldwide, as well as for a variety of mollusks, crustaceans, plants, and marine microorganisms, for various purposes.  Fish are being modified to increase food for human consumption, to produce pharmaceuticals, to test water contamination, and for other uses.

Male tilapia grows faster than females, female trout, salmon, and shrimp grow faster than males, and many species develop a bad taste with maturation of either males or females. The production of single sex groups of fish takes advantage of these differences. Administering appropriate hormones can change the phenotypic (apparent, physical) sex of many aquatic species. For example, genetically male tilapia can be turned into 'physical' females through hormone treatments. These genetic males, that are physically female, are then crossed with normal males to produce a group of all-male tilapia that grow faster. The genetically male tilapia can reproduce with other females but will lose the growth effect.

The shrimp genetic industry has developed “reproductively sterile, all-female shrimp for commercial culture. As selectively bred shrimp with elite genotypes become available for use to the global shrimp industry, the demand for a genetic protection strategy and method to produce all-female populations has never been so great.

The Climate Game Changer

Ocean acidification is one of the side effects of the rising concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere attributed to the burning of fossil fuels. The oceans can absorb enormous amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, but as the gas dissolves it makes the water more acidic. Increasing acidity can make life difficult for corals and other marine organisms that build shells and skeletons out of calcium carbonate. It's going to change some of the dominant organisms in the oceans, and there's a very real danger that it may short-circuit the entire ocean food chain.

The invasive species and GM debate is highly polarized pitting good against evil with little regard to the facts. Contingency plans for feeding starving billions with the certainty of climate change will transform the agriculture and aquaculture industries in the future. This will have an exponentially greater impact than human activity for disrupting ecosystems and both GM and introduction of super species may be required to mitigate global starvation.

The challenge will be the selection and cultivation of more hardy aquatic species that can adapt, survive, and thrive in a future environment buffeted by extreme weather and transformed from climate change. Furthermore, “sustainability” should be the criterion for cultivation decisions and carry more weight than if the plant or animal is exotic or genetically engineered.

THE "NEXT BIG THING" : SEQUENCED BIVALVE GENE

Copyright © 2022 Philip C. Cruver

Global demand for food over the next 40 years is expected to double. Under present production technologies, meeting this demand and achieving global food security will require a doubling of water consumption levels. Meanwhile, the chemically fueled “Green Revolution” has run its course, leaving soil moistures depleted, and unclear climate change patterns threaten a looming agricultural water crisis. According to a study by McKinsey, a third of the world’s population lives in regions facing water shortages; by 2030 global water requirements could be as much as 40 percent higher than the currently accessible supply.

Ironically, 70 percent of our planet is covered with seas offering more economical protein production without depleting scarce water resources. However, wild fisheries around the world have reached or exceeded their maximum sustainable harvest so the United Nations is projecting a 40-million-ton seafood shortage by 2030. Therefore, the $50 billion worldwide marine aquaculture industry - the deliberate farming of ocean species that provides half the world’s edible seafood - will continue to be the fastest growing form of food production in the world.

Bivalve shellfish (oysters, mussels, scallops, clams) are low trophic (scientific-speak) because they are close to the plant base of the marine food web pyramid. Species feeding low in the food chain efficiently utilize natural resources.  Each level up the food chain inflates costs related to the use of resources and the production of waste and the maintenance of water quality.

Fast growing bivalve crops require little attention as they feed on drifting phytoplankton, are easily harvested, processed, and have a long shelf life for extended distribution. This is attracting the attention of private sector investors: no external feed, no negative environmental impact, and short harvest times. These factors reduce risk and generates a phenomenal return on investment.

Cracking the Bivalve Genome

All life forms are subject to the primacy of the genetic code (ATGC), which governs heritability, the ability to reproduce, and the propensity to evolve. As society faces the challenges of insufficient food production and environmental degradation, genetics will become a sustainable survival tool for humanity.

For as long as plants and animals have been domesticated, the tendency has been to select species for improvement with better growth, disease resistance, or any characteristic producing a better yield. With the advancement of shellfish hatchery technology over the past thirty years, this industry has employed these techniques to improve their crops.

On September 19th, 2012, an international team of 75 researchers published the full genome of the Pacific oyster comprising 800 million DNA base pairs, including around 20,000 genes. A close look at the genes of the Pacific oyster immune system reveals why it is largely resistant to plaguing diseases. Oysters can tolerate 100-degree water but also can withstand being covered with ice. They can survive out of water for weeks, if kept cool. They inhabit water where salinity varies seven-fold depending on season and weather. Now that disease-resistant genes have been identified, this could lead to a “molecular breeding” program in which oysters carrying them are raised in large numbers and used for greater yields in aquaculture. 

Molecular and Computational Short Cuts

Unlocking the bivalve genome may also shed light on the consequences of climate change, which could threaten marine organisms’ ability to form shells as the ocean becomes more acidic. Although bivalves are highly fecund, their offspring are very vulnerable and tend to die soon after birth. With the advent of ocean acidification, combined with the certitude of climate change, defined shifts in gene expression related to environmental stresses will provide transcriptional clues to the adaptations bivalves employ for survival. 

Bivalve genes are also specialists in inhibiting “apoptosis,” the process by which a cell kills itself in an orderly fashion once it suffers serious damage, gets old, weak or unneeded. For example, Pacific oysters have 48 genes coding for proteins that inhibit apoptosis. The human genome has eight. Could the complexity of the oyster genome shed light for cracking the code for longevity?

With global population forecast to reach 9 billion by 2050, there will be many more mouths to feed and perhaps more if the bivalve gene reveals the code for inhibiting apoptosis in humans. This “Next Big Thing” of sequencing the bivalve gene will allow scientists and bivalve farmers to increase yields with higher survival rates to help meet the monumental challenge of feeding an aging and burgeoning population.